Research desk
Research
Independent research I write on my own time, mostly where markets and technology overlap. Each paper gets treated like a position: a thesis, the evidence behind it, and an honest note on what would change my mind.
| Symbol | Title / Field | Tags | Thesis | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPCX |
Sky High Price Tag: SpaceX After the IPO
Does a $1.77 trillion valuation hold up?
|
Post-IPO, Valuation, Space | ▼ priced for perfection | 08/11/2026 | Read |
| ANTH |
Anthropic: Pricing the Pre-IPO AI Leader
Valuing a private company ahead of its IPO
|
Valuation, Pre-IPO, AI | ▼ priced ahead of proof | 07/25/2026 | Read |
Featured
Sky High Price Tag: SpaceX After the IPO
The largest IPO in history priced SpaceX at $1.77 trillion, then the stock ran to $225 and fell back to its $135 offer price in two months. Starlink earns its share of that number, but the launch business is near its ceiling and the AI segment lost twice what it earned.
Read the paper →Anthropic: Pricing the Pre-IPO AI Leader
How do you price a company that has no stock ticker? Anthropic went from $61.5B to $965B in 14 months while selling the same core product. I argue the revenue growth and cost efficiency are real, but the valuation has outrun both, so investors are paying ahead of what the business has proven.
Read the paper →More papers land here as I write them.